When the Pitkin County Board of Health last met on Dec. 9, the county had yet to confirm its first case of omicron.
And, when the board of health reconvenes next week, the variant might already be on its way out of Pitkin County.
“We’re reporting more cases now than we’ve ever reported, which is true for many other counties and many other states across the country at this point,” Josh Vance, Pitkin County epidemiologist, said. “The omicron variant, being as transmissible as it is, is causing a much higher case count than we’ve seen with prior variants, which of course is leading to this really high incidence rate.”
When Pitkin County rang in the New Year, it did so with one of the highest seven-day COVID-19 incidence rates in the state, at 2,581 cases per 100,000 people.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers a seven-day incidence rate of more than 99 cases per 100,000 “high” community transmission.
As of Tuesday morning, the county’s seven-day incidence rate had decreased slightly to 2,248 cases per 100,000 people.
Data from countries like South Africa, where the omicron variant was detected earlier on, suggests the variant generally peaks three to four weeks after its initial surge.
“With prior variants it was … probably closer to two months until we were seeing this peak,” Vance said. “With the omicron [variant], because of how transmissible it is, we’re seeing this peak a lot earlier.”
The omicron variant was first detected in Pitkin County on Dec. 20 and, at the time, the county’s seven-day incidence rate was 551 cases per 100,000 people.
“We’re about two weeks in,” Vance said of the county’s omicron surge. “The expectation is that we would hit a peak … next week or a little bit after that.”
Local public health officials have continued to stress the importance of getting vaccinated and boosted regardless of when the omicron variant begins to decline in Pitkin County.
With testing rampant and case counts high, the state has had difficulty reporting data to county health departments in a timely fashion.
Pitkin County has also had to scale back on the number of people it interviews who have tested positive for COVID-19.
Prior to omicron’s being detected locally, Pitkin County interviewed approximately 95% of people who tested positive for COVID-19 in the county.
“Because of this surge in cases we have not been able to continue to interview [at] that rate,” Vance said. “In terms of getting a very accurate incidence [rate], it makes it more challenging.”
People who utilize at-home COVID-19 tests also do not have to report a positive result, which can also make data collection difficult.
As of Thursday, Aspen Valley Hospital’s capacity status was listed as “cautious.” The hospital has seen a concerning number of essential health care workers out with COVID-19 or COVID-like symptoms, which prompted its “cautious status.”
“We’ve seen an increase in cases reported among children but the highest rate of cases actually, at this point, is in the 40-to-50-year-old age range,” Vance said of Pitkin County’s cases. “Prior to that, it was in the 20-to-30-year-old age range.”
The Link Lonk
January 05, 2022 at 05:00PM
https://www.aspendailynews.com/covid19/omicron-could-peak-in-pitkin-county-next-week-or-a-little-bit-after/article_f6776396-6dc8-11ec-9394-2b48175be452.html
Omicron could peak in Pitkin County ‘next week or a little bit after’ - Aspen Daily News
https://news.google.com/search?q=little&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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