With Ukraine surrounded by Russian forces, Western governments warn that Moscow may use the two Russian-backed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk as the stage for a “false flag” attack on ethnic Russian civilians — and then cite it as justification when they storm across the border.
The fear is that the separatist territories could become the setting for a catastrophe, whether staged or accidental, that could lead to far wider violence. A stray shell, for example, might hit a residential building, or there could be a terrorist attack on fleeing refugees. Whatever the situation, Ukraine would be blamed, and Russia would have a pretext to invade.
The import of the two separatist regions became all the more important in Monday after President Vladimir V. Putin said he would recognize their independence. Mr. Putin signed decrees recognizing the regions, including “friendship and mutual assistance” treaties, raising the possibility that Russia could move some of the forces it has built up around Ukraine’s borders into those territories.
BELARUS
RUSSIA
POL.
Kyiv
UKRAINE
ROMANIA
Approximate
line separating
Ukrainian and
Russian-backed
forces
Area of
detail
Luhansk
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Donetsk
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
50 MILES
Sea of Azov
50 MILES
Approximate
line separating
Ukrainian and
Russian-backed
forces
UKRAINE
Luhansk
Donetsk
RUSSIA
Sea of Azov
RUSSIA
Kyiv
UKRAINE
Area of
detail
ROMANIA
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Russia, despite repeated accusations from the West, says that it has no intention of invading, and that it simply wants its legitimate geopolitical interests respected.
While attacking one’s own side to blame an enemy may seem particularly sinister, it would not be the first time it has happened over the eight-year history of the two enclaves.
Analysts have suspected numerous violent events to be false-flag attacks. And insider violence by Russia’s security services or local proxies has been an integral aspect of the republics’ history for years, according to the Ukrainian intelligence services and public statements by comrades of some of those killed.
February 22, 2022 at 03:04AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/world/europe/if-war-flames-in-ukraine-these-two-little-enclaves-may-be-the-spark.html
If war ignites in Ukraine, two little enclaves could be the spark. - The New York Times
https://news.google.com/search?q=little&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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