Ian is a hurricane -- and it could get a lot stronger today.
The National Hurricane Center said Ian became the Atlantic’s fourth hurricane of 2022 on Monday morning and had 75 mph winds as it tracked toward Cuba.
Florida will also be in Ian’s path later this week. Hurricane and storm surge watches have been issued for the west side of Florida’s peninsula. Significant storm surge is a concern for areas near the coast, particularly the Tampa metro area.
The hurricane center continued to point out that the long-range track is still uncertain, saying “it should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame, and users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.”
Alabama’s coastal areas were not in the so-called cone of uncertainty, which stretched from the Florida Panhandle eastward to Florida’s Atlantic coast on Monday. However, depending on Ian’s track parts of east Alabama could get some rain from the storm after it moves inland into Georgia this weekend.
As of 7 a.m. CDT Monday, the center of Hurricane Ian was located about 90 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman, or 275 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba, and was on a path northwest at 14 mph.
Ian had 75 mph winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The hurricane center said rapid intensification is expected today, and Ian could become a Category 3 hurricane (winds 111 mph and higher) by the time it reaches the southern coast of Cuba later tonight.
Ian could peak as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds when it gets into the Gulf but is expected to weaken some before it comes onshore in Florida late this week.
On the hurricane center’s official forecast path, the center of the storm is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today and near or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday.
Ian is expected to make it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. It should pass to the west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.
Landfall could come by late Thursday or early Friday on Florida’s west coast, possibly in the Big Bend area.
Ian may not be a major hurricane by that point, because forecasters think wind shear and dry air may help sap its strength. However it will still be a hurricane, and it could grow in size and slow down, which would be terrible news for Florida if it comes to pass.
“Despite the reduction in intensity, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts along the west coast of Florida,” the hurricane center said.
Of particular concern is Tampa, Fla., which is a vulnerable city when it comes to storm surge. Five to 8 feet of surge will be possible in that area, forecasters said.
Here is a look at the watches and warnings in place on Monday:
* A hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa.
* A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas, the Lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West and the Dry Tortugas.
* A storm surge watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, the Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, Florida’s west coast from the Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge and Tampa Bay.
* A hurricane watch is in effect along Florida’s west coast from Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
* A tropical storm watch is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac and Florida’s west coast from Englewood southward to Chokoloskee.
Cuba could get 9 to 14 feet of surge from Ian, and here are the amounts of surge possible in Florida:
* Anclote River to Englewood including Tampa Bay... 5-8 feet
* Englewood to Bonita Beach including Charlotte Harbor... 4-7 feet
* Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable ... 3-5 feet
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay ... 2-4 feet
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas ... 2-4 feet
The hurricane center said tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand Cayman today. Tropical storm conditions should begin in Cuba later today, and hurricane conditions are expected tonight.
Tropical storm conditions could reach the lower Florida Keys by Tuesday and the west coast of Florida by Tuesday night, forecasters said. Hurricane conditions are possible along the Florida west coast in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday.
Ian could bring 4 to 6 inches of rain to the Keys, and 8 to 10 inches to the Florida peninsula, with local amounts as high as 15 inches.
The hurricane center said heavy rain is expected to affect north Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and parts of the Southeast late this week and over the weekend.
The Link LonkSeptember 26, 2022 at 07:17PM
https://www.al.com/hurricane/2022/09/hurricane-ian-2020-path-update-track-shifts-a-little-rapid-strengthening-expected.html
Hurricane Ian 2020 path update: Track shifts a little; rapid strengthening expected - AL.com
https://news.google.com/search?q=little&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
No comments:
Post a Comment