Returning strikes to boost November jobs report
Investors will be closely watching the November jobs report on Friday — and the end of both the auto workers and actors strikes last month should translate to more payroll gains in the report.
"We expect the November employment report to show an acceleration in job growth, driven by the return of striking UAW and SAG-AFTRA workers," wrote Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics. "The return of striking workers will inflate the headline: We expect that the end of the United Auto Workers strike and the SAG-AFTRA strike will boost job growth by roughly 45,000. Adjusted for those two strikes, we estimate job growth of 160,000, down from 183,000 in October."
Employment in manufacturing decreased by 35,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 jobs in motor vehicles and parts "that was largely due to strike activity," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was the first time the auto strike's impact showed up in the monthly jobs report.
Coupled with jobs lost in the autos sector, employment in the motion picture and sound recording industries decreased by another 5,000 in October after falling by 7,000 in September and 17,000 in August, "reflecting the impact of labor disputes." Since May, which is when the writers strike first began, employment in those industries has declined by 44,000.
The United Auto Workers reached agreements with all of the Big Three Detroit automakers at the end of October, following 46 days on strike. SAG-AFTRA, the actors union, ended a 118-day strike on Nov. 9 following the conclusion of the five-month-long writers strike on Sept. 27.
"Looking through strike-related noise, we expect the jobs report to be consistent with softening labor market conditions, allowing the Fed to forego more rate increases. We continue to think rate cuts are still several months away," Oxford Economics added.
December 07, 2023 at 12:06AM
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